Accepted Papers

Which Investors Matter for Equity Valuations and Expected Returns?

15 August 2023

Ralph S.J. Koijen, Robert J. Richmond, and Motohiro Yogo

Based on an asset demand system, we develop a framework to quantify the impact of market trends and changes in regulation on asset prices, price informativeness, and the wealth distribution. Our leading applications are the transition from active to passive investment management and climate-induced shifts in asset demand.

On the Use of Outcome Tests for Detecting Bias in Decision Making

15 August 2023

Ivan A. Canay, Magne Mogstad, and Jack Mountjoy

The decisions of judges, lenders, journal editors, and other gatekeepers often lead to significant disparities across affected groups. An important question is whether, and to what extent, these group-level disparities are driven by relevant differences in underlying individual characteristics, or by biased decision makers. Becker (1957, 1993) proposed an outcome test of bias based on differences in post-decision outcomes across groups, inspiring a large and growing empirical literature.

Superiority Seeking and the Preference for Exclusion

7 August 2023

Alex Imas and Kristof Madarasz

We propose that a person’s desire to consume an object or possess an attribute increases in how much others want but cannot have it. We term this motive imitative superiority-seeking, and show that it generates preferences for exclusion that help explain a host of market anomalies and make novel predictions in a variety of domains.

The Transmission of Commodity Price Super-Cycles

3 August 2023

Felipe Benguria, Felipe Saffie, and Sergio Urzua

We examine two key channels through which commodity price super-cycles affect the economy: a wealth channel, through which higher commodity prices increase domestic demand, and a cost channel, through which they induce wage increases. By exploiting regional variation in exposure to commodity price shocks and administrative firm-level data from Brazil, we empirically disentangle these transmission channels.

Sources and Transmission of Country Risk

30 July 2023

Tarek A. Hassan, Jesse Schreger, Markus Schwedeler, and Ahmed Tahoun

We use textual analysis of earnings conference calls held by listed firms around the world to measure the amount of risk managers and investors at each firm associate with each country at each point in time. Flexibly aggregating this firm-country-quarter-level data allows us to systematically identify spikes in perceived country risk (“crises”) and document their source and pattern of transmission to foreign firms.

Continuous-Time Games with Imperfect and Abrupt Information

30 July 2023

Benjamin Bernard

This paper studies two-player games in continuous time with imperfect public monitoring, in which information may arrive both gradually and continuously, governed by a Brownian motion, and abruptly and discontinuously, according to Poisson processes. For this general class of two-player games, we characterize the equilibrium payoff set via a convergent sequence of differential equations.

Reserve Accumulation, Macroeconomic Stabilization and Sovereign Risk

15 July 2023

Javier Bianchi and Cesar Sosa-Padilla

In the past three decades, governments in emerging markets have accumulated large amounts of international reserves, especially those with fixed exchange rates. This paper proposes a theory of reserve accumulation that can account for these facts. Using a model of endogenous sovereign default with nominal rigidities, we argue that the interaction between sovereign risk and aggregate demand amplification generates a macroeconomic-stabilization hedging role for international reserves.

Model Complexity, Expectations, and Asset Prices

4 July 2023

Pooya Molavi, Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, and Andrea Vedolin

This paper analyzes how limits to the complexity of statistical models used by market participants can shape asset prices. We consider an economy in which the stochastic process that governs the evolution of economic variables may not have a simple representation, and yet, agents are only capable of entertaining statistical models with a certain level of complexity.

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New paper by Montiel Olea, Qiu & @JoergStoye:

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How should regulators target their limit enforcement budgets? We quantify the benefits of linked regulation, where regulators dynamically target plants co-owned with other plants with poor compliance records.

New paper by @leistenecon & Vreugdenhil

https://www.restud.com/dynamic-regulation-with-firm-linkages-evidence-from-texas/

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How do currencies become international?

Bahaj & Reis(@R2Rsquared) show that PBoC swap lines boosted RMB use abroad, revealing a policy lever to jumpstart a currency’s international status.

https://www.restud.com/jumpstarting-an-international-currency/

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